Abstract

In Kenya, youth constitute approximately 66.7% of the voting-age population, yet they remain significantly underrepresented in electoral processes. In the 2022 General Elections, only 39.8% of registered voters were aged 18-35, a drop of nearly 5% from the last elections. This study assessed the predictors of youth engagement in electoral processes in Kenya using a mixed-methods design, combining surveys of 1,075 youth across seven counties with key informant interviews involving chiefs, religious leaders, and civil society actors. The findings reveal that socio-economic status strongly shapes participation. Self-employed (23.7%), formally employed (23.6%), and students in tertiary institutions (22.4%) reported higher levels of civic engagement that unemployed (16.5%) youth and those working in the informal-sector (13.7%). Although education levels were high (50.3% tertiary and 21.5% postgraduate), education alone did not significantly influence voting intentions. Instead, psychological efficacy emerged as more decisive, with 64% of youth affirming that understanding the voting process strengthened belief in the importance of voting and 32% linking belief in the power of their vote to turnout intentions.

Institutional trust among youths remains fragile, with only 9% expressing confidence in the IEBC, political parties, and the Police, and 17% in the Judiciary. Despite the investment in civic education programs by the European Union and other development partners, 47.6% of respondents in the informal sector and 50.3% of students in higher learning institutions reported having not received any civic education. The influence of the Gen-Z protests was also notable, as 49.1% of youths reported they were more politically active following the protests. However, 48.2% reported experiencing physical assault, 51% online threats, and 32.4% sexual violence during political processes; while 47% faced delays in acquiring national identification cards. Despite these challenges, 83% of youths intend to vote in the 2027 General Elections. Taken together, the study advances a predictive model of youth civic engagement shaped by four determinants: psychological efficacy, socio-economic status, institutional trust, and civic education. It concludes that Kenyan youth are redefining participation through both electoral and alternative civic channels. It therefore calls on Parliament to reform the Electoral Act to institutionalize continuous voter registration and civic education, and for development partners including the EU to expand localized civic education and digital democracy initiatives. Restoring trust and opportunity will enable Kenyan youth to become central architects of an inclusive and accountable democracy.